Existential Demographic Threat To India’s Secular Identity-RK Ohri (IPS Rtd)

During last several decades a lot of disinformation has been propagated across the world, especially in developing countries, that any increase in population per se is an impediment to economic development. Malthusian theory was used as the medium for spreading this disinformation. Truth, however, is altogether different. Manpower or human resource is a great asset for economic development. But there is an important caveat: the population must be educated and invested with professional skills. The real roadblocks to economic development are illiteracy and lack of skill. Youthful population, if it is educated and skilled, is the biggest harbinger of enhanced productivity and higher Gross Domestic Product .

It will surprise the Indian middle class that the latest threat to the humankind does not emanate from over population; it comes from too few new arrivals, a phenomenon which will soon lead to depopulation of many countries. After invention of contraceptives, all over world, except Muslim countries, fertility levels have sharply declined by more than half since 1972 - from 6 children per woman in 1972 to 2.9 in 1990s. According to the United Nations Population Report 2002, Europe's fertility rates are now far below the replacement level of 2.1. Population of Russia is decreasing by 7000,000 every year and President Vladimir Putin considers it a 'national crisis'. The population of Germany could go down by one-fifth in the next 40 years, Bulgaria's by 38 percent and Romania's by 27 percent. Muslim countries, however, are striking exceptions to the global trend of declining population. In Europe Albania and Kosovo are growing fast, and so are Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Pakistan and Afghanistan in Asia.

Unfortunately a majority of middle class Hindu, Sikh and Christian elite and opinion-makers do not understand the weird phenomenon of demographic decimation which destroyed the secular and multicultural ethos of Lebanon, Kosovo, Bosnia, etc., solely due to fast growth of Muslim population which outpaced the Christian numbers. Finally these countries/territories were overwhelmed by Muslim majorities. A similar demographic change now threatens the pluralistic ethos of Macedonia and France. In Macedonia the Muslims were only 8 percent in 1900 A D, but now form nearly one-third of the country's total population. In France between 1970 and 1990 the Christian population declined by 2 millions, from 425,58,000 to 406,27,000, while Muslims multiplied 3 times, from 1,353,000 to 3,850,000 in the same period. The orgy of car-burning and violence by Muslim youth witnessed in France in October-November 2005, was rooted in the fast changing demography of France.

It is time to learn some lessons from the tragic fate of Christians of the Balkans and the three weeks long rioting in France in October-November 2005 which resulted in burning of 30,000 cars and damage to 200 public buildings, including many nursery schools. It led to more than 3,200 arrests. For controlling the spiraling violence large scale arrests had to be made and nearly 400 rioters were sentenced to prison terms and many stripped of their nationality and externed. The damages caused to property were estimated by the underwriters to be between 80 million and 150 million Franks.

To understand the long term implications of fast-paced demographic changes, it is necessary to consider the following facts gleaned from the data of last six censuses held in India since 1951:

Since independence in percentage terms there has been a relentless increase in the
population of only one community, inamely the Muslims, to the exclusion of every other religious group. The percentage growth of all other communities, e.g.,Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains and Christians have been in a declining mode. On top of it, since 1981 the Muslim population growth has gathered speed and is now in a massive fast forward mode. Even Sachar Committee Report has admitted that by the year 2101, the Muslim population of India is likely to be between 32 to 34 crores.

Census 2001 disclosed that the decadal growth rate of Muslims was around 36 percent, while the Hindu growth rate had declined from 23 percent to 20 percent. An unseemly political controversy was raised on the ground that since no census had taken place in J. & K. state in 1991, the conclusions drawn in terms of census 2001 data were faulty. It led to a very clumsy fudging of census 2001, by omitting from the census 2001 headcount, 3.67 crore people living in Jammu & Kashmir and Assam, the 2 states having high Muslim population. It may be recalled that no census could be held in Assam, too, in 1981 due to disturbed conditions, but that did not result in any political ruckus or fudging. The most extraordinary aspect of this exercise (undertaken in the year 2004) was the deletion with retrospective effect of the population of these 2 sensitive States from every census held since 1961- something never done in any democratic country.

It was highlighted in a lucid article by two well known professional demographers, P. N. Mari Bhat and A. J. Francis Zavier, that "the fertility of Muslims, which was about 10 per cent higher than that of Hindus before independence, is now 25 to 30 per cent higher than the Hindu rate". [Source: Role of Religion in Fertility Decline: The Case of Indian Muslims, Economic & Political Weekly January 29, 2005]. It means that Muslim population is now growing at a rate nearly 45 percent higher than the Hindus.

Mari Bhat and Francis Zavier pointed out that the assertion made in a section of
English media that census 2001 revealed a higher reduction in the growth rate of
Muslims than Hindus was incorrect. The decline in Hindu growth rate was higher at 12.2 percent as against 10.3 percent decline in Muslim growth, they reiterated.

There is no truth in the assertion that higher Muslim fertility was due to their
poverty or illiteracy. Since 36 percent Muslims live in urban areas, as against
only 26 percent Hindus, and Muslims have a higher life expectancy at birth than Hindus (by 1.2 years according to 2 NFHS Surveys as analysed by Mari Bhat and Francis Zavier),logically their fertility should have been lower than Hindus. But the fact remains that fertility of Muslim continues to be higher despite their greater urbanization.

The acceptance of family planning by Muslims is lower at least by 25 percent than Hindus and other communities. The real reason is 'religion'. The two professional demographers described the community's higher fertility as "Muslim effect", a somewhat colourful, but truthful, expression. [Source: p.397 of Eco. & Pol. Weekly of January 29,2005].

Interestingly Mari Bhat and Francis Zavier have highlighted the fact that in non-
Muslim countries there is a general trend towards higher growth rate of Muslim
populations.

8. According to NFHS Survey-2 (National Family Health Survey-2 of 1998-99)
in Kerala where the literacy level of 2 communities is almost equal (and due to
large Gulf remittances economically Muslims are better off than the Hindus) the
growth rate of Muslims is much higher than Hindus by a whopping 45 percent.
No wonder in August 2006 Archbishop Verky of Syro-Malabar Church though it
Fit to warn his co-religionists that in another 20 years Kerala was likely to become
an Islamic state.

9. The National Family Health Survey-2 (1998) had revealed that on an average every
Muslim woman was giving birth to 1.1 more children than her Hindu counterpart.

It may be clarified that Mari Bhat and Francis Zavier are not, repeat not, the so-called 'right wing' Hindu fundamentalists, as is evident from their occasionally chiding the Hindu "right" at one or two places in their research study. At least one of them is a Christian - even both could be. Shri Mari Bhat is no more.

It is time that Indians understood the mindboggling import of the highly revealing Statement 7 of Census 2001 Religion Data Report (page xlii) which gives the religion-wise breakup of children in the 0-6 years age group. It shows that the percentage of Muslim cohorts (a term commonly used in demographic parlance) is 21 percent higher than Hindu cohorts. Although according to census 2001 Muslims constitute only 13.4 percent of India's population, their population in the crucial 0-6 years age group is 21 percent higher than Hindus, giving Muslims a headstart advantage of 7.6 over the Hindus, as and when these cohorts enter reproductive age, say roughly between 2011 and 2016. This single page of Census 2001 Report gives a total clue to the demographic crisis likely to engulf India, say anytime after 2011 or latest by 2021. These 0-6 yrs old cohorts (enumerated in 2001) will become reproductively active between 2011 and 2016 and then continue to reproduce for the next 30-40 years. With a 21 percent higher cohort population and at least 25-30 percent less acceptance of family planning, the growth in Muslim population during the next 4 decades is likely to become even more fast paced. It is simple arithmetic - even a high school student can understand it and do it.

The biggest quantum jump in Muslim population (in terms of percentage) in the coming decades will take place in Haryana where the ratio of Muslim cohorts is almost
60 percent higher than the Hindu cohorts! Next in descending order will be Assam, West Bengal, Uttaranchal, Delhi, Nagaland, Bihar and so on.

A further analysis of the 0-6 years cohorts data reveals that out of 35 States and Union Territories listed in Statement 7, the percentage of Muslim 0-6 years cohorts is higher than Hindus in as many 31 States and U.Ts. The percentage of 0-6 yrs Hindu cohorts is marginally higher than Muslims only in two states of Sikkim and Madhya Pradesh and two Union Territories of Daman & Diu and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. It means that in the coming decades the Muslim population will grow at a rate higher than that of Hindus in 31 States and Union Territories.

Statement 7 of Census 2001 Religion Data Report is self explanatory and vividly depicts the looming dark shadow of the future demographic changes across the country. I must reiterate that future demographic trends, based on the data given in Statement 7, are totally unalterable, because these children are already born and will enter reproductive age between 2011 and 2016 and continue to reproduce for the next 30 to 40 years. No one, except God Almighty, can add to, or subtract from, these numbers.

It is surprising how and why the Indian intelligentsia do not try to understand the reasons which prompted the former Prime Minister of U.K., Tony Blair, to discreetly advise all British couples to opt for the 5 children norm, why in recent years most European countries have announced liberal cash bonuses to those couples who opt to have more children, why Peter Costello, Australia's Chancellor of the Exchequer, gave a clarion call to his countrymen that every couple must have at least 3 children, preferably many more, stipulating "one child for father, one for the mother and one for the country". Apprehensive of the population growth of jihad-infested Indonesia, he announced an incentive of 2,000 Australian dollars for every child born after June 2004. [Source: Hindustan Times, May 13, 2004, p.1]. Prima facie many keen observers of global population trends like Niall Ferguson, Bernard Lewis, Robert Costello, Bruce Bawer and Mark Steyn (a Canadian strategic analyst), are now alerting their countrymen about the threat posed by demographic changes across the world. Incidentally in the U.K. and Australia no one laughs at or ridicules Tony Blair, Niall Ferguson or Peter Costello. As a nation the British and the Australians appear to be much more rational and sagacious than us, the Indians.

Some doubting Thomases might ask why this global panic, what is the problem, where is the problem? The answer is that in the year 1900 the Muslims constituted only 12 percent of the world population; they grew to 18 percent in 1992-93 (when Huntington published his first thesis on the clash of civilizations); by 2003 the Muslims became 20 percent of the global population. And by 2025, barely 18 years away from now, they will constitute 30 percent of world population.[Source: Spangler, The Decline of the West, cited by Samuel Huntington]. According to some demographic estimates, Muslims might constitute anything between 37 to 40 percent of the world population by 2100 AD. Correspondingly in recent years the numbers of jihads worldwide have also
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multiplied in tandem with the growth in Muslim population, our next door neighbour Thailand being the latest entrant to the growing list of faultline conflict zones.

Niall Ferguson (a strategic analyst who teaches contemporary history at Harvard) wrote in The Sunday Times, London, in April 2004, that in 50 years time Europe was likely to become a Muslim majority continent. And his warning has alerted most countries of the continent. Some enterprising futurologists have re-named Europe as 'EURABIA'. According to a write up in The Economist, London, in October 2004, acutely fearful of the growing Albanian clout in the Balkans, many well-to-do Macedonians are migrating out and the destination of choice is New Zealand. Apparently they no longer consider Europe safe for their children and grand children. Niall Ferguson has drawn further attention to the fact that due to low fertility rates and increasing life expectancy by 2050 one in every three Italians, Spaniards and Greeks is likely to be 65 years or older. So the 'old Europe' will become much more older. He pointed out that the birth rates of Muslim societies (i.e., including those Muslims who live in non-Muslim countries) are more than double the European average. And that appears to be coming true even in India where the Hindu birth rate is fast approaching the European average. According to census 2001 the decadal TFR, or birth rate of Hindus of Kolkata district (West Bengal) was barely 1 child per woman which was much lower than birth rates of Germany, Italy and Spain. In the southern state of Kerala too the Hindu TFR at 1.64 is below the replacement level of 2.1. Citing the example of Yemen, Niall Ferguson has pointed out that by 2050 its population could exceed that of Russia (based on United Nations forecast and assuming the current fertility rate).In the far away Norway the Muslim population quantum jumped 75 times within 23 years (from 1980 to 2003), rising from 1000 in 1980 to 75,000 plus in 2003 ! The plight of Christian Europe is reflected in an article written by Mark Steyn, 'It is the Demography, Stupid' which reads almost like Dirge of the Dying Europe.

It is time that the Indian middle class and opinion makers understood the long term climactic consequences of the existential demographic crisis writ large across the Indian horizon. In a different context, while analysing socio-economic aspects of the
latest census, the well known demographer, Prof. Ashish Bose, has estimated that presently in 49 districts Muslims already constitute more than 30 percent of population. [Source: Economic and Political Weekly, Mumbai, January 29, 2005, p.371 (table 4)]. A
back-of-the envelope calculation made in the light of the Muslim growth rate of the last two decades shows that Muslims will attain majority status in all these 49 districts, any time between 2091 and 2111, perhaps even earlier. Just now Muslims are in majority in 12 districts to which another 37 may be added by the end of the century, even earlier. What might happen thereafter is anybody's guess. In the light of Kashmir experience, it has the potential to give a massive fillip to the jihadi fervour in the sub-continent. It is estimated that any time between 2051 and 2061 the total Muslim population of the sub-continent (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, all counted together) will exceed the total Hindu population. The denouement could come even earlier, say around 2047, when India should be celebrating one hundred years of freedom. Interestingly even Sachar Committee has unwittingly admitted that by 2101 the Muslim population of India was
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likely to range between 32 to 34 crores. According to Census 2001 the population of Muslims was 13.4 crores in that year.

The foregoing cold facts should ring a loud alarm bell to wake up all those who want to ensure long term survival of secularism in India. Demography is the key to every democracy because elections are won and lost in terms of the numbers game called adult
sufferage. India will remain a secular and democratic nation only so long as it remains a Hindu majority country. That is the bottom line.

The problem has global dimensions, too. It is unfortunate that while the world has woken up to the threat of rapidly changing demography, we Indians have remained comatose.

A detailed analysis of the percentage of 0-6 years old cohorts, along with explanatory comments, given below, highlights the long term dimensions of the fast approaching demographic crisis.

PROPORTION OF 0-6 YEARS COHORTS TO TOTAL POPULATION OF RELIGIOUS COMMUNITIES, BASED ON STATEMENT 7 ON PAGE xlii OF CENSUS 2001 RELIGION DATA REPORT (INDIA, STATES AND UNION TERRITORIES).
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India/States All religious Hindus Muslims Christians Sikhs Buddhists Jains Others
U/Territories communities
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All India 15.9 15.6 18.7 13.5 12.8 14.4 10.6 18.0

Jammu & Kashmir 14.6 13.3 15.4 11.6 10.6 11.7 10.9 15.5
Himachal Pradesh 13.0 13.3 16.2 12.8 12.1 10.6 10.5 13.2
Punjab 13.0 13.2 16.3 16.1 12.8 13.4 10.2 13.5
Chandigarh 12.8 13.4 17.1 12.1 9.1 7.7 10.0 9.7
Uttaranchal 16.0 15.4 21.2 11.7 14.8 9.1 9.8 14.7
Haryana 15.8 15.4 24.5 12.4 13.0 16.2 11.3 11.7
Delhi 14.6 14.3 18.5 11.4 10.8 13.5 11.3 10.1
Rajasthan 18.8 18.8 21.0 14.6 15.1 18.2 10.7 15.9
Uttar Pradesh 19.0 18.6 20.9 14.6 14.1 19.9 11.9 17.0
Bihar 20.2 19.9 22.0 14.8 14.2 19.4 11.0 20.3
Sikkim 14.5 14.6 13.2 14.6 2.0 14.4 11.5 15.0
Arunachal Pradesh 18.8 17.1 18.8 20.5 7.6 19.8 15.7 19.1
Nagaland 14.6 12.7 19.2 14.6 8.3 11.9 11.7 12.8
Manipur 14.2 13.2 19.8 14.0 8.5 18.4 10.1 14.8
Mizoram 16.2 9.2 10.1 16.1 9.8 20.5 16.8 15.8
Tripura 13.6 13.0 18.6 15.7 4.5 17.9 11.9 12.1
Meghalaya 20.2 14.2 21.2 21.1 12.3 14.4 13.5 21.5
7

Assam 16.9 14.5 21.8 17.6 9.9 14.3 10.5 15.5
West Bengal 14.2 12.7 18.7 13.4 10.1 10.6 9.6 15.4
Jharkhand 18.4 17.9 21.2 16.2 11.1 16.8 11.1 19.0
Orissa 14.6 14.4 16.5 17.8 10.8 13.3 10.8 17.8
Chhatisgarh 17.1 17.2 15.5 15.3 12.3 13.4 11.7 19.0
Madhya Pradesh 17.9 18.0 17.9 13.3 12.9 14.5 11.3 18.1
Gujarat 14.9 14.9 15.8 12.8 12.7 17.3 9.2 12.7
Daman & Diu 13.0 13.2 12.3 9.8 11.0 13.5 10.8 8.7
Dadra & Nagar
Haveli 18.2 18.3 16.1 19.3 11.4 18.6 13.8 13.3
Maharashtra 14.1 14.0 16.2 10.3 11.6 14.1 10.1 13.1
Andhra Pradesh 13.3 13.2 14.9 12.3 12.4 16.2 11.3 13.8
Karnataka 13.6 13.3 16.1 11.1 11.9 15.3 12.0 13.8
Goa 10.8 10.9 15.2 9.6 10.0 12.0 11.5 11.9
Lakshadweep 15.0 3.6 15.5 3.1 - - - -
Kerala 11.9 10.8 15.0 11.2 10.0 12.7 9.7 15.9
Tamil Nadu 11.6 11.5 12.9 11.2 10.4 12.0 10.8 11.1
Pondicherry 12.0 12.0 13.1 11.0 8.3 5.5 11.6 12.6
Andaman & Nicobar
Islands 12.6 12.7 11.3 12.7 12.4 5.9 13.0 15.1
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Notes: 1. Population figures for India and Manipur exclude those of Mao Maram,
Paomata and Purul sub-divisions of Senapati district of Manipur.

2. The column All religious communities includes 'Religion not stated'

The above data of cohorts in the 0-6 years age group reveals the following alarming facts

i) Although presently Muslims constitute only 13.4 percent of India's population, their percentage in 0-6 years children was as high as 21 percent in 2001 - i.e., 6 years ago. It clearly shows a headstart advantage of 7.6 percent to Muslims in the matter of reproduction, say after the year 2011 and beyond, when these cohorts attain the age of 17 years.

ii) It is well known that on an average the acceptance of family planning among
Muslims is at least 25 percent lower than the Hindus. That means from 2011
onwards for the next 30-40 years the population growth rate of Muslims will
be faster than what has been witnessed during the last 2-3 decades.

iii) Out of 35 States and Union Territories, the percentage of Muslim cohorts is higher than the Hindu cohorts in as many as 31 States/UTs. In all these States Muslim population will grow much faster. Only in 2 States of Madhya Pradesh and Sikkim and two Union Territories of Andaman & Nicobar Islands
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and Daman & Diu the percentage of Hindu cohorts in 0-6 yrs. age group is marginally higher than that of Muslims.

iv) The biggest quantum jump in Muslim growth percentage will be in Haryana where the Muslim 0-6 yrs age cohorts are higher by 60 percent than the Hindus! Next to follow suit will be Assam, W. Bengal, Uttaranchal, Chandigarh, Delhi, Kerala, Nagaland, etc.

v) The story of the future climactic demographic changes likely to overwhelm the secular identity of India is written on this single page of Census 2001 Religion Data Report. No one, except God Almighty, can substract from or add to these 0-6 yrs cohorts who are already born and are being brought up. They will enter reproductive age during the years 2011- 2017 and then remain active for the next 30-40 years. Every economist knows that the long term statistical trends are not easily reversed unless there are some radical changes
in the basic determinants of such long term trends. As a general rule, it requires two generations of 'Baby Boomers' (i.e., a span of 50 years) to counter and reverse the skewedness of adverse demographics facing a country, or a civilization. The Christians of Lebanon and the Balkans discovered it too late and now the whole Europe is in serious trouble.!

vi) It further follows that in the coming decades the percentage of youthful component of the Hindu society will continue to decline year after year, while the proportion of old people (mostly pensioners, inactive and non-earning sedate men and women) will continue to rise. But among the Muslims the youthful component will remain higher than the Hindus for many years, as is evident from the census 2001 data about 0-6 years cohorts. As a rule, the youth are more adventurous, more aggressive, more demanding and violence-prone. That could be a dangerous prospect for the fast ageing non-Muslim society of India, comprising Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists and Christians. The pitfalls of ageing societies have been highlighted by Samuel Huntington in his famous tome on the Clash of Civilizations. The Christian Europe is in trouble because it is rapidly growing older and becoming functionally effete, finding it difficult to meet the challenge of growing jihadi militancy.

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P. S. The intention of this research paper is not to ruffle the sensitive feathers of our
friends, the self-styled secular intellectuals and middle class chatterati, but to
present the truth based on a clinical analysis of Census 2001 and contemporary
writings on the subject of demographics.


Copyright@ R.K. Ohri